haktutscoinmasterspin| Imported pork: The prices of imported products fell slightly in May, and may rebound from June to August

Zhuochuang Information

[introduction] after May Day, domestic terminal demand returned to a weak state again.HaktutscoinmasterspinAt the same time, domestic pork prices fell slowly in April, bullish expectations in the industry continued to decline, traders rigid demand procurement, hoarding intention weakened. Inquiries at ports decreased in the first half of May, importers cut prices, and the prices of most imported products fell slightly. In the future, domestic pork prices are likely to rise and are expected to rise again, or support the market of imported products from June to August.

As can be seen from figures 1 and 2, the prices of most imported products have fallen to varying degrees since May. According to Zhuochuang statistics, the average transaction price of imported No.2 meat on May 15, 2024 was 18200 yuan / ton, down 1% from the beginning of the month.Haktutscoinmasterspin.36%HaktutscoinmasterspinThe average transaction price of No. 4 meat was 18700 yuan / ton, down 0% from the beginning of the month.Haktutscoinmasterspin.53%; the average transaction price of pig head (with ears and tongue) was 12900 yuan / ton, down 1.53% from the beginning of the month; the average transaction price of long-cut pig feet was 24850 yuan / ton, down 1.19% from the beginning of the month; the average transaction price of imported spine (less meat) was 5600 yuan / ton, down 0.88% from the beginning of the month; the average transaction price of pig elbow was 16750 yuan / ton, down 0.59% from the beginning of the month; and the average rib price was 30350 yuan / ton, down 0.82% from the beginning of the month.

In April, the terminal demand of most products was insufficient, but due to certain bullish expectations in the industry, traders actively hoarded goods such as meat, pig's head, pig's feet, flowers and other products. With the slow decline in domestic fresh pork prices in April, bullish expectations in the industry have declined, traders' enthusiasm for hoarding has weakened, and the speed of import products has slowed down. Importers have a certain inventory pressure, part of the profit margin increased, resulting in the import product market showed varying degrees of decline in the first half of May.

In the short term, pork import prices are expected to fluctuate little in the second half of May. On the one hand, in mid-May, the upstream aquaculture end secondary fattening mood rose, intercepting part of the pig source, the breeding end also pressed the fence to cherish the sale. At the same time, the current profit situation of slaughtering enterprises is generally poor, some temporary inventory still needs to be released, and slaughtering enterprises sell at a higher price. On the other hand, terminal demand is still weak, and it is difficult to improve the sales of white slips and products. Generally speaking, the price of domestic fresh pork is mainly fluctuating in the second half of May, and there is no support for the imported pork market for the time being. Pork traders do not have a strong intention to hoard goods, and it is difficult for the prices of imported products to improve.

The price of pork imports is likely to rise in the next three months. On the supply side, some new goods were sold in mid-April, and according to the shipping schedule, the number of products arriving in Hong Kong increased from June to August. However, after continuing losses, importers are generally cautious in taking goods, and the increase in pork imports from June to August is expected to be very limited, and the overall level is still on the low side.

On the demand side, the hot weather from June to August, salad, barbecue and other widely popular, for the head and hoof, five flowers, minced meat, heart protection and other products consumption season. However, the hot weather suppresses the consumption of most products, and the demand for meat, bone, platoon, elbow, fat and other products is poor. Extrapolated from the upstream, with the tightening of domestic pork supply from June to August, the price of domestic fresh pork is more likely to rise, which has a certain pulling effect on the number of meat; and the rise in domestic pork prices has boosted traders' bullish expectations, and traders may stock up on bone, skin fat, elbow, row and other products in advance. While slaughtering enterprises continue to release the backlog of inventory, the price of domestic frozen goods is on the low side, weakening the price advantage of imported products. Overall, it is expected that the demand for products such as head and hoof, five flowers, minced meat and heart meat will improve in the next three months, and the delivery of products such as meat, bones, platoons, elbows and fat oil will also be higher than expected.

There has been a double increase in supply and demand, of which the increase in demand is greater than that in supply. Zhuang Chuang Information expects that the prices of imported pork products may rise from June to August in 2024, in which the prices of number meat, head and hoof, Wuhua, minced meat and other products will increase relatively obviously, and the overall delivery situation of the products will be better than that in the previous period.

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